Hello Community,

As we approach the September 17, 2025, FOMC meeting — the most pivotal one this year — here’s a quick market outlook to keep you in the loop. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just getting started, understanding Fed decisions helps you navigate stocks, bonds, housing, commodities, and even crypto.

For those newer: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body. They meet 8 times a year, and their moves on interest rates send ripples through the entire economy.

📉 Historical Context: How Rate Cuts Have Played Out

Rate cuts aren’t one-size-fits-all — outcomes depend on the economic backdrop:

• 2001 & 2008: Cuts during recessions. Markets fell first, then rebounded in recovery.

• 2019: “Insurance cuts” in a stable economy. Stocks rallied to new highs.

• 2020 (COVID): Rates slashed to zero. Stocks crashed initially, then staged the fastest rebound ever on Fed + fiscal stimulus.

• 2024: Powell began cutting late in the year after prolonged high rates. With inflation easing, markets ended the year on a high note — echoing 2019.

📊 Current Outlook: 2025 Fed Meeting Probabilities

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool (which tracks fed funds futures), markets are pricing in aggressive easing. These probabilities are dynamic — they shift daily with new data, so always check FedWatch for the latest read.

September 17, 2025 (Current Rate: 4.25%–4.50%)

• Ease (cut to 4.00%–4.25%): 99.4%

• No Change: 0.6%

• Hike: 0.0%

October 29, 2025

• Ease: 99.7%

• No Change: 0.3%

• Hike: 0.0%

  • ~55% odds of 3.75%–4.00%

  • ~45% odds of 4.00%–4.25%

December 10, 2025

• Ease: 100%

• No Change: 0%

• Hike: 0%

  • ~47% odds of 3.50%–3.75%

  • ~46% odds of 3.75%–4.00%

  • ~7% odds of 4.00%–4.25%

⚖️ My Take: Bullish Setup Ahead?

This feels like a 2019-style redux:

• Inflation has cooled steadily over the last 12 months.

• GDP growth looks set to accelerate, fueled by AI productivity gains.

• Tariff risks are easing as new trade deals calm volatility.

Personally, I believe rates are too restrictive right now — we should have started cutting earlier. With inflation under control, easing here could actually supercharge risk assets like stocks and crypto rather than hurt them.

Of course, risks remain: if inflation unexpectedly ticks back up or geopolitical tensions flare, markets could pivot quickly. But overall, I don’t see this setup as bearish.

🚨 Disclaimer

This is my personal opinion based on public data — not financial advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a professional before making decisions.

Stay sharp,
Adam Bergman