Next Fed Decision
July 29, 2026
HOLD
3.50%-3.75%Market-implied odds currently lean toward holding rates at the next meeting.
RetiredASAP Macro Command Center
Fed Odds Watch
Futures-derived educational estimates from 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Not official CME FedWatch probabilities.
Futures-derivedPartial Jul 11, 7:31 PM UTC
Selected Meeting Distribution
Hold 68%Selected Meeting Distribution
Jul 28-29, 2026. Lower target ranges count as Ease/Cut, the current range counts as No Change/Hold, and higher ranges count as Hike.
HOLD3.50%-3.75%
68%1D -8.0 pts1W -16.0 pts1M -24.0 pts
HIKE3.75%-4%
32%1D +8.0 pts1W +16.0 pts1M +24.0 pts
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Meeting Timeline
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Most likely policy path
Most likely policy path
Based on the highest-probability target range for each meeting.
Current path Current target Prior snapshot
Selected meetingJul 293.50%-3.75% midpoint 3.71%